BAGHDAD – As America prepares to withdraw its troops from Iraq by the end of the year, U.S. and Iraqi officials have expressed concern that Al Qaeda here, just a few years ago conducted a debilitating uprising plunged the country in a civil war, is ready for a deadly resurgence.
Qaeda allies in North Africa, Somalia and Yemen seek to assert more influence after the death of Osama bin Laden and the diminishing role of the top leadership of Al Qaeda in Pakistan remains. For his part, Al-Qaeda in Iraq is struggling to recover from the defeat inflicted by the main Iraqi tribes and U.S. troops in 2007, and the death of their two leaders in 2010.
Although the organization is certainly lower than it was at its peak five years ago and it is unlikely to regain its former strength, U.S. and Iraqi analysts said that the Qaeda franchise is changing its tactics and strategies – attacking forces as Iraqi security forces in small units – to exploit the gaps left by U.S. troops and output in an attempt to rekindle sectarian violence in the country.
The group, also known as Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, has shown surprising resilience even when their traditional lines of supply of foreign fighters through Syria has been affected by the crisis in this country, intelligence officials the United States. It takes place a little more than 30 attacks per week, conducted a major strike every four to six weeks, and has expanded its efforts to recruit Iraqis, resulting in a significant increase in the number of Iraqi suicide bombers to origin.
“I cringe every time someone makes a statement that Al Qaeda is in the final,” said Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, spokesman for U.S. chief in Iraq. “I think we can one day look around and say that was so long that we have heard of Al Qaeda, and perhaps then we can say that in the past.”
Nascent revival Qaeda affiliate has helped fuel a debate among some Pentagon officials on the one hand, they are looking for a way to allow a small number of U.S. military instructors and operations of special forces operate in Iraq Some White House officials on the other, they are ready to close the final chapter of a division of eight-year war that killed more than 4,400 soldiers.
Iraqi analysts have expressed fears that the links between Al Qaeda and members of the former ruling Baath Party can return to the form. “The government is afraid of an alliance between Qaeda and Baath precisely at this time, after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq,” al-Shemar Ehssan, professor of political science at Baghdad University. “The security issue is the biggest challenge for government in the next step. ”
According to General Buchanan, between 800 and 1000 people in the Al-Qaeda in Iraq, “terrorists involved in the operations of the media to support the fighters.” Said a statement issued by the army in July 2010 Al-Qaeda had about 200 “hard core” fighters in Iraq. The weakness of the Iraqi economy provides many young recruits vulnerable, analysts say.
An official with the Department of Defense familiar with the subsidiary Qaeda said the group leaders and foot soldiers are Sunni Arabs of central, western and northern Iraq. While some may have been affiliated with the Baath party in the government of Saddam Hussein, according to analysts, who were not involved in the government hierarchy or military. Foreigners make up only a small percentage of the members of the organization.
During the summer, the branch-Qaida in Iraq tried to ignite the sectarian blood with a series of coordinated attacks across the country and the implementation of 22 Shiite pilgrims in the city of Karbala who were traveling through Anbar province, once an area controlled by al Qaeda.
In the days following the pilgrims were killed, security forces in Karbala raid in Anbar led local government, arrested several people and took them to Karbala. The raids angered local leaders in Anbar, which has threatened to respond with violence. However, the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki spoke frantically. Acting Secretary of Defense traveled to Anbar to meet with local leaders and, finally, one of the local leaders threatened with a lawsuit in a way unthinkable to resolve a dispute in Iraq.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/world/middleeast/leaving-iraq-us-fears-new-surge-of-qaeda-terror.html?_r=1&ref=world
